China announced trade data, unexpectedly strong

According to a Reuters report on the 14th, China surprised markets with unexpectedly strong trade data, signaling that the world's third-largest economy is on a solid recovery path and global demand is gradually picking up. The data offers fresh evidence of economic resilience amid ongoing global uncertainties. China's General Administration of Customs reported that exports fell 15.2% year-on-year in September, which was better than the forecasted 21% decline. Meanwhile, imports dropped only 3.5%, far below the expected 15.3% drop, indicating stronger domestic demand and improved external conditions. Brian Jackson, an economist at the Royal Bank of Canada in Hong Kong, noted that the slower decline in both exports and imports is a positive sign for China’s economic recovery. He pointed out that the country’s growth this year has been heavily reliant on its 4 trillion yuan economic stimulus plan, and the improving trade numbers suggest that the policy is starting to take effect. After adjusting for the number of working days per month, exports rose 6.3% compared to August, while imports surged 8.3%. This suggests that the momentum in trade is gaining strength, particularly as global markets begin to recover. Jackson added: "A more robust external demand will be another key driver of growth, giving Beijing the opportunity to slowly ease its monetary policies from early 2010." Despite the strong import performance, China's trade surplus narrowed to $12.9 billion in September, down from $15.7 billion in August. Analysts had expected a surplus of $17 billion, but the slowdown in the surplus reflects increased domestic consumption and investment. Economists are optimistic about the outlook for export growth. Nomura Securities predicts that year-on-year export growth will turn positive by December, while Barclays Capital believes the turnaround could come even earlier, possibly in November. Goldman Sachs economists Song Yu and Qiao Hong noted that the potential for growth in trade has been rising, aligning with the strengthening domestic economy and the clearer signs of global demand recovery. Sun Mingchun, an economist at Nomura Securities in Hong Kong, agrees. He said that China is actively purchasing investment products to support its infrastructure-driven stimulus package, while also boosting consumer goods demand. Commodity trading has become a major driver behind the surge in Chinese imports, reflecting increased industrial activity and investment in raw materials. A Reuters survey of economists suggests that China's GDP growth for the third quarter could rise to 8.9%, up from 7.9% in the second quarter. These figures are set to be released on October 22. Experts believe that Beijing may continue to push for a gradual appreciation of the renminbi to boost domestic consumption and help rebalance the global economy. This remains a key objective of the G20, where China plays a significant role. In other developments, the People's Bank of China announced that foreign exchange reserves reached $2.2726 trillion by the end of September, marking a 19.26% increase from the previous month. Over the first three quarters of the year, reserves grew by $326.6 billion, a 50.7 billion dollar increase year-on-year, with $61.8 billion added in September alone.

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