Textile and clothing warm field "about in winter"

In the first three quarters of this year, the performance of SWS continued to decline, with 79 listed companies achieving an operating income of 135.356 billion yuan, an increase of 4.62% year-on-year and a decrease of 17.6% from the same period of last year; and a net profit of 8.968 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.32%. , a substantial drop of 54.04 percentage points from the same period last year. However, from the perspective of sub-sectors, while textile manufacturing continued to decline, clothing home textiles maintained growth, but the growth rate slowed down significantly. From the perspective of specific company performance, in the context of weak domestic and foreign consumption and slowing down of the overall growth of the industry, some companies with good operating conditions and sustainable growth are still able to maintain a good performance growth rate, such as the China Silver Cashmere Industry. Canudi Road, Sutut Special and Pathfinder.

From the export and domestic sales data in the first three quarters of this year, it is clear that it is still necessary to wait for the turning point in the industry. In September, the value of textile and apparel exports was 25.126 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 9.33% year-on-year, the highest since April of this year, and a significant increase of 12.68 percentage points from the previous month. Although the export situation has rebounded in September, exports are still facing serious challenges under the influence of weak external demand, expansion of cotton spreads at home and abroad, weakening of labor cost advantages, and appreciation of the ***, and the real recovery of demand needs long-term observation. . According to the China National Business Information Center’s statistics on apparel sales of 100 key large-scale retail enterprises nationwide, retail sales in the first three quarters increased by 11.2% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.54 percentage points from the first half of the year and a decrease of 10.8 percentage points from the same period of last year; The volume increased 1.7% year-on-year, a decrease of 5.06 percentage points from the same period of last year. Last year, textile and apparel companies achieved better operating results through price increase. This year, under the influence of economic growth slowdown, decline in consumer confidence index, and price increase crowding effect, consumer demand is weak, and volume growth has not been replaced by rising prices. The driving force for growth.

At present, some brand clothing companies ended their spring/summer 2013 trade fairs. Affected by weak demand and inventory pressure, franchisees took a relatively cautious approach to ordering, and the overall pace of ordering slowed down compared to the same period of last year. High-growth companies ordered Continue to maintain rapid growth. Pathfinders in the outdoor supplies industry expect the growth rate of orders in the spring and summer of 2013 to be 50.5%, and that of the fashion casual wear industry is expected to be 35% to 40%. Both companies are high-growth companies with relatively low ordering situation. it is good. It is worth noting that the growth rate of the trade fair data for the menswear industry is slightly lower than market expectations. The growth rate of Canudi Road is estimated to be about 26%, the number of Announcement Birds is expected to be about 15%, and that of Seven Worms is expected to be 10% to 15%. Expected growth in single digits. Obviously, the slowdown of the data of the fair in the spring and summer of 2013 has caused the market to worry about the performance of the brand clothing company in the first half of 2013.

In the secondary market, the textile and apparel sector has recently undergone major adjustments due to poor industry data, performance in the third quarter, and the status of the orders. The current industry's overall valuation is 18 times, and it is in a historically low area. However, with the advent of the sales season driven by cold weather and holidays, the clothing consumption situation in the fourth quarter will have improved compared to the third quarter. Some brand clothing companies with large adjustments have certain valuation opportunities for repairs. We recommend investors to focus on stable stocks, good performance expectations, and sustainable growth in the short-term, and guard against the risk of adjustments for strong stocks and subject stocks.