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From the perspective of the domestic economy, the economy was stable in September and it is possible to focus on the sub-sector. From the upstream, the thermal coal is supported by tight supply and heating season. The supply and demand are tightly assisted by electrolytic aluminum. After the oil price begins to fall, it may be weak or shocked. From the middle of the tour, pay attention to the continued rise in the price of glass, the increase in steel prices, but the absolute level is still low, the air pollution control in autumn and winter or the price of pesticides. From the downstream, the electronic boom is still there, BDI continues to rise, the price of liquor and dairy products has risen steadily, the air conditioners in home appliances have grown steadily, and the kitchen appliances have performed well.
From the perspective of overseas economy, the ISM index hit a new high in 2008 since September. The non-manufacturing PMI index performed well and the US economy continued to improve. The minutes of the Fed meeting showed that the committee reached an agreement on the issue of contraction in October, and there was a slight disagreement on the interest rate hike in December, but the market still believes that the Fed will raise interest rates once. In the context of the US economy continues to improve and the interest rate hike is expected, the US dollar will regain support and the RMB exchange rate will start two-way fluctuations. Due to the excellent performance of the overseas economy, China's export sector, processing trade sector and international shipping sector will gradually benefit.
This week we remain concerned about the two core policy variables of regulatory policy and liquidity. On the policy front, on the first anniversary of the SDR new currency basket, Zhou Xiaochuan, the central bank governor, was interviewed to talk about the opening up of the economy, define the “troika†for opening up, and insist on expanding the general direction of opening up. In terms of liquidity, the seasonal payment of fiscal deposits in October, bank approvals and corporate tax payment superimposed on the open market, the amount of funds due to large, predicting that liquidity will maintain a tight balance next week. This week we verified our view that liquidity was slightly loose last week. If we do not consider the central bank's open market operations next week, the liquidity gap next week will be about 400 billion yuan, a significant increase from last week, and seasonal factors such as overlapping tax payment and other factors, to determine the tight balance of liquidity next week.
From the perspective of investment strategy, in the fourth quarter of 2017, we continue to be optimistic about the A-share market, and recently recommended to pay attention to the three quarterly quotes and valuation switching benefits. With the continuous disclosure of the 3 quarterly reports, the company's performance pre-happiness rate has been disclosed to be 75%. It is recommended to pay attention to the three-quarter report performance exceeding expectations. At the same time, as the market corrects the forecast for next year's performance, the investment in switching investment opportunities will receive more attention. From the perspective of configuration, focus on the media, medicine, liquor, home appliances and other sectors. On the subject, we will focus on topics such as military-civilian integration, environmental protection, and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, which may exceed expectations.
1. Domestic economy: stable demand, structural prosperity
From the upstream, the thermal coal is supported by the heating season, and the supply and demand are tightly assisted by electrolytic aluminum. The oil price will stop falling after the holiday. As of October 12, the inventory of the six major power coal groups decreased by 4.1%, the number of available days also fell, and the inventory of Qingang quickly rebounded. It is expected that the heating season will support coal prices, but it is necessary to pay attention to policy dynamics. Although iron ore port stocks have fallen back, the current price is still weak. Industrial metals: Basic industrial metals have risen and fallen, aluminum and zinc stocks are at low levels, and environmental protection winter production policies or aluminum prices. In terms of crude oil, the oil price stopped falling after the holiday. As of the 11th, IPE oil and WTI crude oil (continuous contract) futures closed at US$56.9/barrel and US$51.3/barrel, but with the weakening of geopolitical factors, oil prices are expected to remain weak.
From the middle of the tour, the price of glass continued to rise, and the inventory of steel prices fell back. The policy test or the aid of pesticides. The China Glass Price Index has continued to rise since the beginning of August and has broken through the previous platform. Inventory is passively accumulated under the weak steel price, but the absolute level of inventory is still lower than the average of the past three years. In the short-term autumn and winter atmospheric management, “2+26†urban pesticide companies are facing production stoppages or helping to increase the price of pesticides.
From the downstream, the electronic boom is still there, BDI continues to rise, and the price of liquor and dairy products has risen steadily. In the first three weeks of September, passenger car retail and wholesale fell by 1.9% and 6.2% year-on-year, respectively, and overall sales were good. On the electronics front, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and the Taiwan Electronics Industry Index have continued to rise since late September. In terms of home appliances, total air-conditioner sales in August increased by 29.8%, and domestic sales increased by 37%, with good growth. In terms of dairy products, New Zealand's natural natural milk prices have risen again since July. Liquor aspect, double liquor sales strong, the country Maotai grant price 1350 yuan / bottle or more, Wuliangye 000,858, diagnostic share grant price of 810-830 yuan / bottle. In terms of retail sales, the retail sales of 50 key large-scale retail enterprises nationwide in July and August increased by 4.9% and 7.1% year-on-year, which was higher than the growth rate of 2.8% in the first half of the year.
2. Overseas economy: ISM hits new highs and disagrees on interest rate hikes
In September, the ISM index hit a new high and the US economy continued to improve. The US ISM manufacturing index was 60.80, higher than August 58.80, reaching a new high since the financial crisis. Among them, the output index rose to 62.2, the employment index rose to 60.3, the supplier delivery index rose to 64.4, the free inventory fell to 52.5, and the customer inventory was 42, slightly higher than August 41. The order stock was 58, which was basically the same as August 57.5, while the new export order index rose to 57. The indicators of the manufacturing index continued to improve. The non-manufacturing index was similar to the manufacturing index, indicating that the US economic recovery process was strong. This has played a considerable role in supporting the rise of the US stock market.
The probability of raising interest rates has increased, but there are still differences . On October 11, the Federal Reserve announced the minutes of the FOMC meeting. The minutes of the September meeting of the Fed released the Fed showed that the Fed officials decided to maintain the federal funds rate at 1%-1.25% and announced the “reduction†in October. The above is highly consistent, but there are differences in the judgment of the inflation situation. Some members hope to see more supportive data before raising interest rates again. Most monetary policy committees expect the US central bank to raise interest rates for the third time in the year in December, but their fears of low inflation are rising, and there is more hesitation about the pace of interest rate hikes. According to the federal funds futures market, the probability of another US rate hike in December was 86.1%. Under the background that the US economy continues to improve, the market has another interest rate hike expectation. The US dollar will receive corresponding support in the short-term and long-term. The RMB exchange rate will maintain two-way fluctuations, and the US market will continue to improve.
3. Policy perspective: The central bank governor talks about opening up to the outside world, and the liquidity is tight next week.
Central Bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan talks about economic opening up
Zhou Xiaochuan, the governor of the central bank, talked about the opening up of the economy, defined the opening up of the "troika" and insisted on expanding the general direction of opening up . Against the background of the first anniversary of the SDR new currency basket, the International Department of the People's Bank of China published the monograph “The Road to RMB to Join SDRâ€, and Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the People's Bank of China, accepted an exclusive interview with Caijing magazine. He said that the opening up of the country, the reform of the exchange rate formation mechanism, and the reduction of foreign exchange controls must be promoted as a whole. The "Troika" in the field of opening up to the outside world is opening up to the outside world and reforming the exchange rate formation mechanism. The direction is that the RMB exchange rate is more determined by the market and gradually moves toward equilibrium; reducing foreign exchange controls and gradually realizing the free use of the RMB or higher convertibility. It has been accelerated in recent years, but there is still room for improvement. We believe that China's financial market is currently less open, the stock market adopts a channel-based open form, and the foreign exchange market is managed on the basis of actual demand. The financial market rules are significantly different from the international market. Subsequent financial opening to the outside world, in the short term may gradually cancel the restrictions on foreign shareholdings, the total assets of foreign bank shareholders, etc., the same national treatment for foreign capital; in the medium term continue to use channel-style opening to the outside world to gradually open the stock market.
After the holiday, the liquidity is slightly loose, and the liquidity is tight next week.
This week we verified our view that liquidity was slightly loose last week, and we decided to maintain a tight balance of liquidity next week. In last week's weekly "Financial Priority, Layout Growth", we put forward: "The funds will be reflowed after the next week, which will ease the liquidity pressure to a certain extent." This week, most of the fund interest rates have perfectly verified our views. In October, the seasonal payment of fiscal deposits, bank approvals and corporate tax payments superimposed on the open market, and the liquidity was maintained in a tight balance next week.
This week, the central bank continued to “cut the peak†operation, and the net return was 200 billion yuan. Since the current liquidity of the banking system is at a relatively high level, it can absorb the influence of the central bank's reverse repurchase due and other factors. Therefore, this week, the central bank continued to repatriate 200 billion yuan through reverse repurchase. Specifically, on Monday and Thursday, respectively, the net return of 1,600, 40 billion yuan, Tuesday, Wednesday zero. This week, the central bank restarted the 7-day reverse repurchase operation, while suspending the 14-day and 28-day reverse repurchase operations, and raising the capital cost through the lock. It is expected that the DR007 will continue to operate steadily around 2.9%, and the central bank will continue to stabilize the funding expectations through the “peak cutting and valley filling†operation.
This week, the liquidity was slightly loose, and the capital interest rate was mostly down. From the perspective of interest rate trends, DR007 has seen a downward trend this week. The weekly average interest rate is 2.96%, which is 9.96BP. This week's SHIBOR short-term interest rate fell, long-term interest rates rose, indicating that short-term liquidity is relatively loose over the long term. In the same industry, the 1M and 6M volume and price fell, the 1Y volume and price rose, the 3M volume fell, and the 9M price rose. Among them, 1M and 3M fell the most, with a drop of 75% and 51% respectively; the price of 3M was the largest, with an upward trend of 11.32BP.
If you do not consider the central bank's open market operations next week, the liquidity gap next week is about 400 billion yuan. Next week's liquidity is analyzed from the perspective of the central bank's open market operations and fiscal deposits. (1) The open market operation due amount next week is 170 billion yuan. Next week, the central bank’s public operation due amount will be 170 billion yuan, which is lower than the open market operation due of 300 billion yuan this week. The liquidity pressure brought about by the expiration of the open market has slightly decreased. (2) The fiscal deposits in October are expected to increase by nearly 934.1 billion yuan, averaging about 230 billion yuan per week. In the last five years, the average value of fiscal deposits in September was -366.9 billion, while the average in October was 59.72 billion, an increase of about 934.1 billion yuan, an average increase of nearly 230 billion per week.
4. Market Review: Upstream and downstream seesaw
Starting this week, the statistical time of our weekly market is adjusted to Thursday-Thursday, which is easy for us to release on Friday. This week, the SSE (+1.11%), Shenzhen Stock Exchange (+1.99%), and Entrepreneurship (+1.77%) markets were all popular, and the Shenzhen Component Index performed slightly better. In terms of industry, the 24/29 industry rose, and home appliances, medicine, food, agriculture, animal husbandry, retail, computer and media rose 2%-5%, and large consumption rebounded. In the secondary industry, white electricity, other medical and medical care, liquor, insurance, chemical and pharmaceutical, animal husbandry, value-added services, public transport logistics, biomedicine, and retail sales were among the top gainers. In terms of the theme, the board index, mobile resale index, small program index, smart logistics index, new retail index, health China index, smart medical index, smart car index, bird flu index are among the top gainers.
In terms of market style, the style switching of the market is more proficient. The weight of the broader market rebounded markedly. The trend of the middle and small-scale uptrends supported by the cyclical growth has now shown signs of ending. The consumption and financial weights have rebounded sharply, while the cycle and growth have obviously rebounded. This round of rapid corrections has once again triggered investors' concerns about the downward trend of the cycle in the future, which led to adjustments in positions.
In the previous weekly report, we mentioned, “When there is a weekly level of callback in each cycle, it can trigger the market’s panic about cycle support and switch to downstream weights.†This phenomenon has become very proficient in this week’s configuration. With the cyclical correction, the downstream core target has seen a rapid rise in the near future. But what is different is that this downstream recovery is not just traditional consumption. We have seen more emerging industries join the core standards. In emerging industries including tmt, the downstream is less affected by upstream price fluctuations, and the new direction is the new momentum of future development. We believe that emerging industries will regain valuations in the fourth quarter and lead new value.
5. Configuration tracking
Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei integration: "Digital Xiong'an" creates a smart city construction model
On October 6, the Administrative Committee of Xiong'an New District held a special meeting to study the big data management system and the basic ideas of the construction of “Digital Xiong'an†and fully promote the construction of “Digital Xiong'anâ€. Chen Gang, deputy governor of Hebei Province and director of the Administrative Committee of Xiong'an New District, said that “Digital Xiong'an†is the prescribed action and the meaning of the construction of Xiong’an New District. It is an important means and carrier for promoting the construction of smart cities and must be highly valued. Advance with all efforts to achieve urban planning, urban construction, urban governance, and intelligentization of urban services. We must promptly establish the personal data account system of Xiong'an citizens, the big data management system for Xiong'an housing lease, build the blockchain and digital integrity application platform of Xiong'an New District, set up the “Digital Xiongan†visual display center, and strive to build the Xiong'an New District. It has become a city for collaborative governance of credit, a green city for universal benefit, a city for financial technology innovation, and a city for safe operation.
At present, the Internet is accelerating its penetration into various sectors of the national economy such as manufacturing, breaking the existing industrial structure and spawning new formats such as cloud computing, big data, blockchain, and artificial intelligence. Applying big data, cloud computing and blockchain technology to industrial production and urban planning and management is an important part of smart manufacturing and smart city construction. The integration of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and the construction of Xiong'an New District is the future construction and manufacturing of Chinese cities. An important example of the development of the industry, the construction of “Digital Xiong’an†also reflects the important orientation of China’s future smart city construction.
Every week, Xiong An will launch at least one policy information related to Xiong'an New District. Examining the current information, the most microscopic is the establishment of the Xiong'an Group. Just as the government's official definition of the company: Xiong'an Group is the main carrier and operation platform for the development and construction of Xiong'an New District in Hebei. Its main functions are to innovate the investment and financing model, introduce social capital through multiple channels, carry out PP P project cooperation, raise funds for new district construction, build a new district investment and financing system; carry out land first-level development, affordable housing and commercial real estate development and construction; To undertake the comprehensive improvement of Baiyangdian environment and the development and management of tourism resources; to be responsible for the transportation and energy infrastructure and municipal public facilities construction and franchising in the new district; to participate in the development and construction of various parks and major industrial projects in the new district. We are looking for relevant investment directions to study key companies involved in PPP, real estate, environmental protection, tourism, transportation, energy, and utilities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.
Media: Valuation is at a historical low, strategic allocation value is prominent
The stable performance and undervalued value of the media industry are the two main reasons we have been recommending. In addition, the media's performance in the past three years is stable, revenue, net profit growth and ROA, ROE levels are all in a high positive level in the market, which fully demonstrates: 1. Under the industry comparison, the performance of the media has its own market. The advantages of the two; 2, under the comparison, the media is focused on stability, from the historical data, performance is sustainable. In the near term, the media industry valuation has reached a recent low. With the release of the TV drama limit order last week, the trend of the industry rectification supply side chaos is obvious. In October, the industry will enter the active period at the end of the year, and it is recommended to continue to pay attention to game leaders and boutique content producers.
In addition, we turn our perspective to the perspective of investors. From the perspective of institutional investors, the media fund shareholding ratio (average average) ranks 7th in the second quarter, with a value of 0.02%. If the social security fund's average position changes in the second quarter, the media ranked first in the market with 1.96%, and transportation and catering tourism were above 1%, significantly higher than the fourth agricultural and pastoral 0.48%. This shows that funds, especially social security funds, are more optimistic about the media. The social security fund has always been regarded as one of the incarnations of the "national team". In combination with the market's pursuit of the national team "king woman", we believe that the media also has its own advantages in this perspective.
Reform of state-owned enterprises: paying attention to the investment opportunities in the reform of state-owned enterprises in Tianjin and the mixed reform of central enterprises and mergers and acquisitions
This week, the Tianjin State-owned Enterprises reformed the standard of Binhai can be suspended, marking the Tianjin state-owned enterprise reform has begun to operate at the level of listed companies, the future reform space is large. It is still recommended to pay attention to the investment opportunities in the reform of state-owned enterprises in Tianjin and the mixed reform of central enterprises and mergers and acquisitions.
At the central level, on Tuesday, the People’s Daily published an overseas version of the article saying that the reform of state-owned enterprises boosted China’s economic expectations. The state-owned enterprises, which are large in size and mostly in the lifeline of the national economy, not only achieved solid progress in reform, but also showed development ideas and operations. Way to update. On the same day, Hao Peng went to China Guodian to investigate, emphasizing the implementation of the new development concept, promoting reform and restructuring, and focusing on safe production, and welcoming the party's 19th National Congress with outstanding achievements. On Thursday, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission strengthened the supervision of key reform areas, and the supervision of state-owned assets continued to increase. On Friday, the State Council Information Office held a press conference on the economic performance of central enterprises in 2017. In the first three quarters, the revenue of central enterprises continued to grow at a double rate. On the same day, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a document to regulate the pricing adjustment of state-owned assets to ensure the preservation and appreciation of state-owned assets. From the dynamics of the central level this week, the revenues of central enterprises continued to maintain double-speed growth, the quality of operations improved steadily, the layout structure continued to be optimized, and the supervision continued to increase. The reform of state-owned enterprises remained one of the important themes.
At the local level, Zhangjiakou City ’s first state-owned enterprise “three for one industry†separation and transfer agreement was signed. The documents issued by Shandong Province have accelerated the reform of the provincial-owned state-owned enterprise system. The state-owned capital operation budget of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of Guilin City, Guangxi Province was overfulfilled. The reform of Hunan Province has been accelerated, and state-owned enterprises have increased their effectiveness and handed over bright “transcriptsâ€. The reform of state-owned enterprises in various localities has been frequent, the basic layout has been continuously optimized, the quality and efficiency have increased steadily, and the vitality of state-owned enterprises has been continuously enhanced.
Enterprise level, coastal energy 000695, clinics shares to be planning major issues, the company stock since the market opened on Monday the suspension, which is listed on the important subject of our state-owned enterprises in Tianjin featured subject in the backdoor. National Hi-Tech look clear competitive advantage, 000301 East market, restructuring shares diagnosed with a bright future, 12.762 billion yuan previously disclosed the proposed backdoor listing of the Oriental market, the major asset restructuring of local state-owned enterprises are innovations to respond to national call for reform of mixed ownership. 000100 TCL Group, TCL Communication diagnosed shares to be transferred 49% stake, to introduce investors to promote the restructuring, three are in the mobile communications industry have business resources, TCL will do behind the support. Non-public offering of A shares of China Unicom 600050, shares of companies attending mix reform program involves the issuance examination committee by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, mixing multiple changes to get a breakthrough. Angang Steel Company 000898, clinics shares intends to 8.98% A shares by the company of its wholly-owned subsidiary of Anshan Iron and Steel Group Co., Ltd. held the total share capital transferred without compensation to the oil group. From the perspective of enterprise dynamics, the restructuring and merger of state-owned enterprise assets is an important measure to promote the reform of mixed ownership. Local enterprises have actively responded to the call for reform of the state's mixed ownership system, and corporate reform has continued to deepen.
In terms of investment proposals, we are firmly optimistic about the prospects for future reforms as Shanghai's national reform accelerates this week. It is recommended to pay attention to the following changes in the central enterprise group and the underlying listed companies: Eastern Airlines 600115, Diagnostics , China Unicom, China Southern Power Grid, Harbin Electric Group, China Nuclear Construction 601611, diagnostic stock , Chinese ship 600150, medical stock (first batch) Mixed modification of 6+1 pilot), PetroChina, Sinopec, weapons industry, weapon equipment, China Railway Engineering, China Railway Construction 601186, diagnostic stock , State Grid, China Airlines, China Southern Airlines, COFCO (the second and third batch of possible pilots). In addition, at the local level, it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunities in the reform of Tianjin state-owned enterprises.
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