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After the initial period of the new cashmere market went through a period of “hot†trend, the market trading began to become more and more bleak in June. By the beginning of July, there was not much trading volume. At the beginning, everyone thought that this was a temporary correction. It is believed that the price will not fall too much or may rise again, but according to the current market conditions, there are more and more people who are bearish.
After the new cashmere went on the market this year, in addition to the basic cashmere sold in Liaoning and Gansu, there are a large part of cashmere in the hands of pastoralists in Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Shaanxi, Qinghai, and other cashmere production areas. Since the prices of buyers and sellers cannot be docked, buyers Both sellers and sellers are watching and the market is showing a “basically immobile†situation and dare not take the initiative to catch the goods. In terms of farmers and herdsmen, it is mainly due to the decline in prices and reluctance to sell. In the absence of market optimism, the success of Britain's Brexit has further exacerbated the cashmere industry. After all, Europe is the largest exporter of cashmere in China. How to change the market outlook? That is, there are favorable factors as well as unfavorable factors. However, the overall number of unfavorable factors is high, and the factors that affect the fluctuation of the cashmere market will be summarized and summarized for reference by the industry.
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1, Britain Brexit
Britain's Brexit has caused the market instability in the EU and the United Kingdom to surge. The largest cashmere export region is Europe, which occupies a very important export position. This will directly affect the export of China's cashmere products to the United Kingdom and the European Union, but the extent of the impact needs further observation, and the relevant export enterprises need to be vigilant.
2. Exchange rate changes
The expected depreciation of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar was a favorable factor, but we also saw these days. Although the RMB depreciated faster, the pound and the EU depreciated faster. Therefore, exchange rate changes may have two consequences. First, the United States All other currencies have added value, which has promoted the increase in the United States' demand for imported cashmere products. The depreciation of the renminbi against the renminbi by the Euro and the British pound will inhibit the export of Chinese cashmere products to Europe.
3. Exports keep growing and prices stay in place
From the export data of the first five months, exports maintained a rapid growth, but the price remained low, and now the export price is lower than the herdsman purchase price, forming a price upside down! It seems that foreign businessmen are buying bargains at low prices when cashmere prices are low, rather than a reflection of real demand.
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4, cashmere production has decreased
In the past few years, due to the low price of cashmere and the high price of mutton, many herdsmen have changed from breeding cashmere goats to breeding sheep. In the past year or two, the price of cashmere is also low. The price of mutton is also low, resulting in many farmers and herders reducing the cashmere goat's Inventory amount. This will result in a certain reduction in cashmere production this year, and in some regions there will be significant reductions. Looking at the current market, there may be more production cuts next year.
5, domestic sales are getting worse
Cashmere domestic sales have been sluggish for the past few years, and this year is still no improvement, and the situation is not as good as last year. The rise of e-commerce has not driven the increase in sales, but it has only changed from offline to online. The chill in domestic sales not only reflects cashmere, but the apparel industry as a whole is not good. It is only that the high-end cashmere industry has been hit harder.
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In the first half of 2016, the cashmere market was in a dramatic ups and downs. In the second half of the year, it was only in the critical period that everyone was making a profit. Nowadays, businessmen including foreign countries are afraid to buy it. They are waiting to see everything but maintaining normal production demand. In order to wait for the order in September, if the order is good, the sellers of the goods may be untied. If the order is not optimistic, some traders and companies will lose money! From now on until almost two months in September, it may still be necessary to maintain a desolated state and the price will remain in a steady decline, but if there is price or no market, then there will be no change in prices. significance!
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