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National Investment Competition: peek at the big king to catch the monsters 
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Source: WeChat public number national gold strategy and industry configuration notes
The main points
1. Overseas: "American elections" and "American interest rate hikes are expected to heat up", "Korea's cronies and dominance" have restricted market risk preferences, global markets are narrow and weak, the US dollar index has fallen, crude oil has fallen sharply, and gold and industrial prices have fallen. Upstream
In the nearly nine days of the November 8th US election, this seemingly foregone US election has added some uncertainty (on the Thursday, the New York Times is also optimistic about the chances of Hillary winning. 91%): On the evening of October 28th, the US Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) Director Komi reported to Congress that it would investigate the Hillary "Email Gate" incident again. The reason is that during another case investigation, an email was found that was associated with the Hillary private email server survey. This information is like a super bomb, which instantly ignited the excitement of American society. Now open any US news website, and the homepage is almost full of reports on this matter. When the news appeared, Trump laughed, Hillary stunned, and the entire Wall Street was shocked. Both the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell sharply in the intraday trading, but the US stocks recovered slightly after the close. At the moment of turmoil, spot gold short-term rose to 1,284.04 US dollars / ounce, the highest since October 5.
We tend to have little influence on the "FBI investigation of Hillary" incident, "Hilary won the US president", and it may be "a false alarm." On the one hand, because the US Department of Justice is the representative of the American elite, and the current elite is supporting Hillary, the investigation of the restart of the e-mail portal mainly reflects the independence of the judiciary; on the other hand, because the investigation takes a long time, In the nine days from the presidential election, the results of the investigation are unlikely to be announced, and naturally it has little effect on Hillary."
During the year, the Fed also had two interest-rate meetings. According to US time, once is the November meeting on interest rates, announced on November 3rd (next Thursday) in Beijing time; once in December, the interest rate meeting will be announced in the early morning of 15th Beijing time. From the current point of view, the probability of a US interest rate hike in December is relatively high. In November, the US Federal Reserve will still maintain a certain degree of patience.
Last week, the global market fluctuated within a narrow range and the US dollar index fell at a high level, with a weekly decline of 0.33%, COMEX gold +0.65%, LME copper +4.34%, and ICE oil -4.02%.
Second, the domestic economy "stable growth" and "suppressive bubble" simultaneously, monetary policy will remain neutral, implement a proactive fiscal policy, and propose to focus on the "active fiscal" industrial chain (infrastructure, PPP, debt-to-equity, etc.)
This Friday (October 28th), the Politburo meeting was held (guessing that the A-shares fell back this Friday or related to this meeting), this Politburo meeting proposed "to maintain a prudent monetary policy and maintain liquidity." While reasonably abundant, focus on restraining asset bubbles and preventing economic and financial risks. The asset bubble here mainly refers to the real estate bubble. Of course, whenever a bubble is mentioned, A shares will be implicated, and the A-share market will be short-term. May be affected by investor sentiment fluctuations.
At present, the domestic economy as a whole shows an “L†trend. The GDP growth rate in the first three quarters of this year is stable at 6.7%. It is a foregone conclusion to complete the annual target. The regulation of the real estate market will continue. The probability of “reduction of interest rate cut†in the fourth quarter is still small. We expect monetary policy to remain neutral, and implementing a proactive fiscal policy has become a point of view. Active fiscal policy is mainly implemented through “infrastructure (urban rail equipment, water conservancy and hydropower, pipelines, etc.), debt-for-equity swap, PPPâ€, and it is recommended to pay attention to its industry. Chain investment opportunities.
Third, "it is reported that the reduction of bank shares by the stock" has a short-term impact on market sentiment. In addition, the 17th batch of new shares will be issued as scheduled this weekend.
Near the end of the month, with the successive disclosure of the third quarterly report of the banking stocks, the operation route of the securities company in the banking stocks gradually surfaced. It has been reported that during the third quarter, the shares of the four banks of China Merchants Bank, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, Minsheng Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank were all reduced by the securities companies. The precision band operation of the securities company will inevitably not cause the market's delusions. Many investors suddenly have the feeling of being dominated. This also explains to some extent the reason why the sustainability of the sector is so bad in our previous report. - Market style rethinking, the event affects market sentiment in the short term.
At the end of this week (October 28), the 17th batch of new shares were issued as scheduled. According to the announcement of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, 14 IPOs were issued in this IPO, including 7 main boards, 2 small and medium-sized boards, 5 GEM, and total funds raised. No more than 10.1 billion, which means that the issuance of new shares is still carried out step by step.
Fourth, there is a continuation of style, "wide financial industry chain, Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, debt-to-equity swap", etc.
Under the background of the regulation of the property market, it is expected that wide fiscal and infrastructure investment will continue to exert strength as the main means of hedging the economy. After the National Day, the State Council issued an opinion on actively and steadily reducing the leverage ratio of enterprises, adhered to a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy orientation, which will run through the macroeconomic policy direction of the fourth quarter. The active fiscal policy is mainly implemented through “infrastructure (urban rail equipment, water conservancy and hydropower, pipelines, etc.), debt-to-equity swap, PPPâ€, and it is recommended to pay attention to its investment opportunities in the industrial chain.
In terms of Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, with the completion of the test network of the “Hong Kong-Shenzhen†exchanges, we expect that the regulatory authorities will most likely announce the official launch of Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect in late October or early November (expected in mid-late November). . As the launch of Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect is approaching, the relevant Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect sectors (broker B, liquor B, medicine B, insurance B and AH shares) deserve attention.
“Debt-to-equity swap†is one of the most important channels for the central government to reduce leverage on “debt-to-debt†companies. The follow-up catalyst is expected to continue to ferment. It has implications for its related parties, such as “debt-converting debt-investing companies, AMC companies, banks†and other entities, and it is recommended to pay attention.
Investment suggestion: Maintain the "autumn winter harvest" view, index (2900-3200) interval
Although there were more negative information this weekend, such as "additional variables in the US election, the continued fermentation of Korean cronies, the Politburo meeting to suppress the bubble, the media reported that the national team slightly reduced the bank shares, the 17th batch of IPO weekends, etc." There may be small adjustments in the market in the short term, but the adjustment is limited. Standing at the current time, it is premature to conclude that the current round of A-share rally is over. Currently, it still maintains the judgment of (2900-3200), and is relatively optimistic about the market performance before mid-November. Objectively speaking, market risk appetite does not have a trend-up, and there is no trend decline. The stock market is on the one hand. On the one hand, it is subject to the US expectation of interest rate hike in December. The domestic currency will not have loose conditions in the short term and the ban will be lifted in November and December. The scale is large, and the funds face is obviously a “vulnerary†state, which makes the index appear in the ceiling (above 3200 points), and we will turn cautiously above 3200 points; on the other hand, the current index short-term kinetic energy is still insufficient, the national team continues In the operation of “high throwing and low suckingâ€, the current A-share index has the feature of “it is difficult to go down significantly without a large upsideâ€. And the factors of bad interest in the fourth quarter are concentrated after mid-November. Therefore, we believe that some of the extra-terrestrial funds will be in a “vacuum period†and choose to participate in the staged game, to ease the line and structure.
In terms of sector configuration, we tend to be “the performance is determined, the valuation is reasonable†industry is still the direction of institutional configuration, relatively optimistic about “consumer electronics, medical biology†and other specific micro-molecular industries, such as “blood productsâ€. “Consumer Electronics†mainly involves the Apple industry chain (0LED, etc.) and automotive electronics. On other topics, we propose to focus on investment opportunities in the industrial chain under the broad financial background, including “infrastructure (urban rail equipment, water conservancy and hydropower, pipelines, etc.), debt Conversion of shares, PPP, etc., other topics such as “Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, Optical Fiber Communication, Comprehensive Two-Child, Brand, Local National Reform (Shanghai, Shenzhen), Price Increase, Carbon Tradingâ€, etc., will continue to be favored by funds. .
Prospective review of important events (high forward-looking accuracy rate: the previous “PPP, debt-to-equity swap, AMC†policies are accurately grasped):
October 31: The Standing Committee of the National People's Congress reviews the draft amendment to the Private Education Promotion Law
November 1st: Japan's November central bank meeting on interest rates
November 2nd: Cross-Strait Peace Development Forum (Beijing, Xi or attendance)
November 3: US November meeting on interest rates
November 4th: US non-farm payrolls data for October
November 8th: US Presidential Election
Early November: Long March 5
November 11th: Double "11" Shopping Festival
November 14 (expected): Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect officially announced
November (expected): Smart car roadmap released
November (expected): The seventh batch of special construction bonds will be issued
Enter [Sina Finance and Economics Unit] Discussion
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