U.S. Department of Agriculture Announces Global Cotton Supply and Demand Forecast Report for August 2011

Business News Agency August 25th The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its monthly global cotton supply and demand forecast for August. This month's report lowered global cotton consumption and production in 2010/11 and 2011/12, and increased 2011/ The global ending stocks of the year 12 were 320,000 tons, and the opening stocks in 2011/12 were also increased by 130,000 tons, mainly due to the weak consumption in the end of 2010/11.

In 2011/12, due to the reduction of production in Brazil, Uzbekistan, Burkina Faso and Benin, the global cotton production was reduced by 100,000 tons, which was also reflected in the revision of last year’s consumption and the growth rate of consumption of only 1%. The continued weakness in cotton fiber demand and the increased competitiveness of alternatives such as chemical fiber. Global trade volume has also been lowered. Global ending stocks are expected to be 11.47 million tons, and the stock-to-consumption ratio is 44%, which is higher than the previous two years but still lower than the historical average.

This month’s report also increased US cotton production, exports, and ending stocks in 2011/12. The US Department of Agriculture’s first production survey showed that cotton harvested area is 58.88 million mu and it is expected that 30% of the cotton already planted will be seriously damaged. Drought and abandoning harvesting, the output is expected to be 3.6 million tons, increase by 120,000 tons, but still 9% lower than in 2010/11; the amount of cotton used in the United States is 827,000 tons, but the export volume is increased to higher supply 2.68 million tons; the ending stocks are expected to be 720,000 tons, 16% higher than the opening stocks; the average price range for 2011/12 is expected to be 85-105 cents/lb (±5 points).