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Recently, due to short covering, the oil price has risen strongly. On Monday, Brent crude oil broke through the $48/barrel mark and refreshed the high point on July 21. The US and the two oil companies both rose more than 2% in the day. As of the press, the US oil report was 45.57. USD/barrel, oil reported $48.08/barrel.
The oil-producing countries shouted to discuss the information boosting the oil market to help the oil price rise, but the market generally expects that it is difficult to reach an agreement, the fundamentals are still bad, and the oil price is under pressure from the bearish counterattack.
Royal Bank of Canada Capital Markets analyst Tran said in the report that the basic expectation is that OPEC will not take action at next month's meeting. Given that OPEC's production plans are mostly symbolic, emotional, rather than practical, crude oil bulls should not overreact to recent comments.
Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at Think Markets, points out that the current trend in the market is a real case of how speculation drives price movements. Looking at the demand side, you will find that the GDP data of the world's third largest country is not enough to boost crude oil demand.
Morgan Stanley's Adam LonGS on and other analysts said in the report that a fairly large September US crude oil put option exercise price is 40 US dollars / barrel, 45 US dollars / barrel, higher or close to the market price, resulting in trading The hedges soared to cover exposure, and once the date of August 17 expires, the impact of the move will fade. Comments from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) have also helped reverse the bearish sentiment.
The report also said that OPEC crude oil production record (although seasonal), coupled with increased Libyan crude oil exports, Iraq's output growth trend may continue into 2017, increased bearish signs.
The report also said that the decline in US gasoline inventories is deceptive, as higher net exports (decreased imports and increased sales in overseas markets) may “mask this problemâ€. If the global crude oil product market is still oversupply, then the ability to expand export capacity may be affected. Limitation, the decline in the operating rate of refineries is inevitable.
Mike Wittner, head of crude oil market research at Societe Generale, said that the news about the freezing of crude oil production may only boost market confidence in the short term, but it will not affect the actual global crude oil supply.
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